{"id":239,"date":"2013-09-24T12:03:15","date_gmt":"2013-09-24T10:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/?p=239"},"modified":"2013-09-24T12:11:43","modified_gmt":"2013-09-24T10:11:43","slug":"anketa-kea-verejny-dlh-prekroci-55-hdp-v-buducom-roku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/239\/anketa-kea-verejny-dlh-prekroci-55-hdp-v-buducom-roku","title":{"rendered":"Anketa KEA: Verejn\u00fd dlh prekro\u010d\u00ed 55% HDP v bud\u00facom roku"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Tla\u010dov\u00e1 spr\u00e1va<\/h3>\n<p>Verejn\u00fd dlh prelom\u00ed na bud\u00faci rok dlhov\u00fa brzdu na \u00farovni 55% HDP a\u00a0v\u00a0roku 2015 bude atakova\u0165 57% HDP. Vypl\u00fdva to z\u00a0ankety medzi \u010dlenmi Klubu ekonomick\u00fdch analytikov (KEA) a vybran\u00fdmi ekon\u00f3mami, ktorej sa z\u00fa\u010dastnilo 14 respondentov.<\/p>\n<p>Ak sa splnia tieto predpoklady, bude musie\u0165 vl\u00e1da na z\u00e1klade z\u00e1kona o\u00a0rozpo\u010dtovej zodpovednosti najnesk\u00f4r v\u00a0priebehu roka 2015 viaza\u0165 3% z\u00a0v\u00fddavkov \u0161t\u00e1tneho rozpo\u010dtu. S\u00fa\u010dasne bude musie\u0165 vl\u00e1da ako aj obce a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161ie \u00fazemn\u00e9 celky najnesk\u00f4r v\u00a0roku 2016 zmrazi\u0165 rast v\u00fddavkov. Ak by v\u00a0roku 2015 do\u0161lo k\u00a0prekro\u010deniu hranice dlhu na \u00farovni 57%, bude musie\u0165 vl\u00e1da ako aj obce a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161ie \u00fazemn\u00e9 celky pripravi\u0165 na rok 2017 vyrovnan\u00fd alebo prebytkov\u00fd rozpo\u010det.<\/p>\n<p><b>Respondenti v\u00a0ankete odhadli v\u00a0priemere 89-precentn\u00fa pravdepodobnos\u0165, \u017ee SR preraz\u00ed v\u00a0roku 2014 dlhov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 55% HDP (medi\u00e1n odpoved\u00ed bol a\u017e 97%) a\u00a0v\u00a0priemere 48-percentn\u00fa pravdepodobnos\u0165, \u017ee SR preraz\u00ed v\u00a0roku 2015 dlhov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 57% HDP (medi\u00e1n odpoved\u00ed bol 53%).<\/b> Viacer\u00ed ekon\u00f3movia o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee v\u00a0snahe vyhn\u00fa\u0165 sa sankci\u00e1m pod\u013ea z\u00e1kona o\u00a0rozpo\u010dtovej zodpovednosti bude vl\u00e1da prij\u00edma\u0165 ne\u0161tandardn\u00e9 opatrenia, aby kritick\u00e9 hranice dlhu neprelomila.<\/p>\n<p>Radovan \u010eurana, ekonomick\u00fd analytik INESS: <i>\u201eVl\u00e1da sa boj\u00ed vyrovnan\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu ako \u010dert kr\u00ed\u017ea, \u010do je prirodzen\u00e9, a\u00a0preto pou\u017eije v\u0161etky dostupn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje, ako vykazovan\u00fd dlh udr\u017ea\u0165 pod touto hranicou \u2013 tak\u00fdmi n\u00e1strojmi s\u00fa napr\u00edklad superdividendy, \u010di zni\u017eovanie hotovostn\u00fdch rezerv.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Michal Mu\u0161\u00e1k, ekonomick\u00fd analytik v\u00a0Slovenskej sporite\u013eni: <i>\u201e\u0160t\u00e1t m\u00e1 sp\u00f4soby, ako dlh zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165, \u010di u\u017e cez superdividendy, privatiz\u00e1ciu alebo riadenie likvidity. Predpoklad\u00e1m, \u017ee sa bude sna\u017ei\u0165 udr\u017ea\u0165 pod 55-percentnou hranicou.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Martin \u0160uster,<i> <\/i>riadite\u013e odboru v\u00fdskumu<i> <\/i>v\u00a0N\u00e1rodnej banke Slovenska:<i> \u201eBez prijatia \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00fdch a\u00a0administrat\u00edvnych opatren\u00ed by som tipoval prekro\u010denie 57%-nej hranice od roku 2014 s vy\u0161\u0161ou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou, ale som si skoro ist\u00fd, \u017ee vl\u00e1da (a ARDAL) niektor\u00e9 tak\u00e9to opatrenia prijme. Pod \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00fdmi a administrat\u00edvnymi opatreniami mysl\u00edm kroky zni\u017euj\u00face vykazovan\u00fd hrub\u00fd dlh, ale nezni\u017euj\u00face deficit ani \u010dist\u00fd dlh.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Respondenti tie\u017e o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee deficit verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed v\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokoch mierne prekro\u010d\u00ed pl\u00e1n vl\u00e1dy. V\u00a0priemere odhadli, \u017ee v tomto roku dosiahne 3,17% HDP, v\u00a0bud\u00facom roku 3,01% a\u00a0v\u00a0roku 2015 dosiahne 2,74% HDP.<\/b> Medzi d\u00f4vodmi prekro\u010denia pl\u00e1nu analytici uviedli neochotu vl\u00e1dy prij\u00edma\u0165 nepopul\u00e1rne opatrenia, ale aj hrozbu automatick\u00e9ho zn\u00ed\u017eenia sadzby DPH v\u00a0pr\u00edpade poklesu deficitu pod 3% HDP. Viacer\u00ed upozornili aj na riziko, \u017ee vl\u00e1da bude zni\u017eova\u0165 deficit jednorazov\u00fdmi opatreniami, ktor\u00e9 nepoved\u00fa k\u00a0ozdravovaniu verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Juraj Barta, hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m v Slovenskej sporite\u013eni: <i>\u201eKe\u010f\u017ee po\u013eavuje zahrani\u010dn\u00fd tlak, ochota vl\u00e1dy na \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia s\u00a0bl\u00ed\u017eiacimi sa vo\u013ebami bude klesa\u0165.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Eugen Jurzyca, konzultant INEKO:<i> \u201eVe\u013ea bude z\u00e1visie\u0165 od\u00a0postoja E\u00da. Ak bude akceptova\u0165 \u201ekonsolid\u00e1ciu\u201c typu predaj ropn\u00fdch rezerv, zmen\u0161ovanie druh\u00e9ho piliera alebo in\u00e9 kamufl\u00e1\u017ene opatrenia, v\u00fdznamne sa zv\u00fd\u0161i pravdepodobnos\u0165 dosiahnutia pl\u00e1nu a\u00a0naopak.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Juraj Kotian, ekonomick\u00fd analytik v\u00a0Erste Group Bank:<i> \u201eR\u00fdchle zn\u00ed\u017eenie pod 3 percent\u00e1 nemus\u00ed by\u0165 v\u00a0z\u00e1ujme vl\u00e1dy, aby nemuselo d\u00f4js\u0165 k\u00a0automatick\u00e9mu zn\u00ed\u017eeniu DPH, ktor\u00e9 by musela vl\u00e1da kompenzova\u0165 riadnymi konsolida\u010dn\u00fdmi opatreniami. Vl\u00e1da si na ukon\u010denie proced\u00fary nadmern\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu m\u00f4\u017ee uplatni\u0165 v\u00fdnimku vo forme odpo\u010d\u00edtania \u010dasti n\u00e1kladov na d\u00f4chodkov\u00fa reformu alebo vzh\u013eadom na recesiu v\u00a0Euroz\u00f3ne uplatni\u0165 odklad plnenia z\u00e1v\u00e4zku zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 deficit pod 3 percent\u00e1.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Ekonomick\u00ed analytici na\u0161li zhodu v\u00a0ot\u00e1zke, \u010di maj\u00fa by\u0165 PPP projekty zahrnut\u00e9 do bilancie verejnej spr\u00e1vy a\u00a0vykazovan\u00e9 vo verejnom dlhu. V\u0161etk\u00fdch 14 respondentov odpovedalo na ot\u00e1zku kladne. <\/b>Viacer\u00ed uviedli, \u017ee PPP projekty sa na Slovensku robia za \u00fa\u010delom obch\u00e1dzania rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch pravidiel a\u00a0nie s\u00a0cie\u013eom \u010do najefekt\u00edvnej\u0161ieho vyu\u017eitia zdrojov.<\/p>\n<p>Peter Golia\u0161, riadite\u013e INEKO: <i>\u201eUr\u010dite \u00e1no, pokia\u013e bud\u00fa rizik\u00e1 rozlo\u017een\u00e9 tak, ako tomu bolo doteraz na Slovensku zvykom. To znamen\u00e1 najm\u00e4, \u017ee \u0161t\u00e1t ponesie riziko dopytu, pri\u010dom bud\u00face spl\u00e1tky nedok\u00e1\u017ee financova\u0165 z\u00a0v\u00fdnosov za pou\u017e\u00edvanie dia\u013enic. Doteraj\u0161ia prax uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee na Slovensku je motiv\u00e1cia stava\u0165 cez PPP projekty dan\u00e1 najm\u00e4 snahou vyhn\u00fa\u0165 sa ofici\u00e1lnemu rastu dlhu a\u00a0nie snahou o\u00a0efekt\u00edvnej\u0161ie pou\u017eitie zdrojov.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Juraj Kotian, ekonomick\u00fd analytik v\u00a0Erste Group Bank: <i>\u201eKe\u010f\u017ee ide o\u00a0nekryt\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u00e4zky vl\u00e1dy, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa pr\u00e1vne vym\u00e1hate\u013en\u00e9, mali by by\u0165 zahrnut\u00e9 do verejn\u00e9ho dlhu.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Marek Senkovi\u010d, hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m v Slovnafte: <i>\u201eKa\u017ed\u00fd projekt, pri ktorom vznik\u00e1 potenci\u00e1lne riziko vzniku bud\u00facich z\u00e1v\u00e4zkov verejnej spr\u00e1vy, by mal by\u0165 zoh\u013ead\u0148ovan\u00fd v\u00a0bilanci\u00e1ch verejnej spr\u00e1vy. Tak sa spr\u00e1va be\u017ene ka\u017ed\u00fd rozumn\u00fd hospod\u00e1r, na strane druhej by na tomto mal by\u0165 koncenzus naprie\u010d krajinami E\u00da.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Spomedzi \u0161trn\u00e1stich respondentov si dvan\u00e1sti myslia, \u017ee by<\/b> <b>\u00fastavn\u00fd z\u00e1kon mal garantova\u0165 z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 parametre druh\u00e9ho piliera, ako napr\u00edklad v\u00fd\u0161ku odvodov, a\u00a0to najmenej na s\u00fa\u010dasnej \u00farovni. <\/b>Zvy\u0161n\u00ed dvaja pova\u017euj\u00fa za posta\u010duj\u00faci oby\u010dajn\u00fd z\u00e1kon. Viacer\u00ed<b> <\/b>upozornili na potrebu pripravi\u0165 kvalitn\u00e9 pravidl\u00e1 na v\u00fdplatu d\u00f4chodkov z\u00a0druh\u00e9ho piliera.<\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1n Maru\u0161inec, prezident M.E.S.A.10: <i>\u201eS\u00fahlas\u00edm, ale nepova\u017eujem to za d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9. Ako uk\u00e1zala prax, aj n\u00e1stroj ak\u00fdm je 2. pilier sa d\u00e1 \u201etechnick\u00fdmi\u201c zmenami upravi\u0165 v\u00a0neprospech sporite\u013eov tak, \u017ee v\u00fdnosy v\u00a0\u0148om nie s\u00fa zauj\u00edmav\u00e9, pritom ne\u0161lo o\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00fd parameter 2. piliera. Takto by musela by\u0165 \u00fastavne zabet\u00f3novan\u00e1 cel\u00e1 reforma. Sk\u00f4r by bolo potrebn\u00e9 dobr\u00fa verejn\u00fa debatu, aby \u013eudia mohli prija\u0165 informovan\u00e9 rozhodnutie o\u00a0vstupe\/zotrvan\u00ed\/v\u00fdstupe z\u00a02. piliera. Ale to je parketa pre DSS, NGOs, m\u00e9di\u00e1, pr\u00edpadne i politikov.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Martin \u0160uster, riadite\u013e odboru v\u00fdskumu<i> <\/i>v\u00a0N\u00e1rodnej banke Slovenska: <i>\u201eNapriek tomu, \u017ee som nap\u00edsal nie, parametre druh\u00e9ho piliera by sa nemali zhor\u0161ova\u0165. Je v\u0161ak potrebn\u00e9 zlep\u0161i\u0165 pravidl\u00e1 na spr\u00e1vu fondov (aby sporitelia mali n\u00e1dej na vy\u0161\u0161ie v\u00fdnosy) a\u00a0pripravi\u0165 kvalitn\u00e9 pravidl\u00e1 na v\u00fdplatu d\u00f4chodkov z\u00a02. piliera. Toto v\u0161etko by mal rie\u0161i\u0165 oby\u010dajn\u00fd z\u00e1kon, nie \u00fastavn\u00fd.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent: <i>\u201eDlhodob\u00e1 stabilita by umo\u017enila investova\u0165 \u00faspory tak, \u017ee bud\u00fa dosahova\u0165 dlhodobo vy\u0161\u0161ie v\u00fdnosy.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Zoznam respondentov:<\/span><\/p>\n<table border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Meno<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">Poz\u00edcia<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Organiz\u00e1cia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">1<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Barta Juraj<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Slovensk\u00e1 sporite\u013e\u0148a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">2<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Barto Martin<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">poradca predstavenstva<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Sberbank Slovensko<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">3<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Cihl\u00e1\u0159 Ji\u0159\u00ed<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">ekonomick\u00fd analytik<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Next Finance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">4<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">\u010eurana Radovan<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">ekonomick\u00fd analytik<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">INESS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">5<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Fojt\u00edk Boris<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">ekonomick\u00fd analytik<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Tatra banka<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">6<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Golia\u0161 Peter<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">riadite\u013e<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">INEKO<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">7<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Jurzyca Eugen<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">konzultant<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">INEKO<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">8<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Kotian Juraj<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">Head of CEE Macro<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Erste Group Bank<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">9<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Maru\u0161inec J\u00e1n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">prezident<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">M.E.S.A.10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">10<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Mu\u0161\u00e1k Michal<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">expert pre bankov\u00fa strat\u00e9giu<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Slovensk\u00e1 sporite\u013e\u0148a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">11<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Prega R\u00f3bert<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Tatra banka<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">12<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">Senkovi\u010d Marek<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">Slovnaft<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">13<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"165\">\u0160uster Martin<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"195\">riadite\u013e odboru v\u00fdskumu<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"175\">N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka Slovenska<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"37\">14<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\" valign=\"top\" width=\"534\">Jeden respondent si \u017eelal osta\u0165 v anonymite<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Viac inform\u00e1ci\u00ed poskytne:<\/p>\n<p>Peter Golia\u0161<\/p>\n<p>riadite\u013e INEKO, \u010dlen riadiaceho v\u00fdboru KEA<\/p>\n<p>Tel: 02 \/5341 1020<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:golias@ineko.sk\">golias@ineko.sk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><br clear=\"all\" \/> <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Kompletn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky ankety<\/h3>\n<p><b><i>Ot\u00e1zka \u010d. 1: Ak\u00e1 je pod\u013ea V\u00e1s pravdepodobnos\u0165, \u017ee SR zn\u00ed\u017ei deficit verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed pod 3% HDP v roku 2013, 2014 a 2015? (uve\u010fte percento od 0% do 100%)<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Odpovede:<\/p>\n<table width=\"313\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">Priemer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Medi\u00e1n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Min<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Max<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2013<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">32%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">40%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">80%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2014<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">50%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">60%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">90%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">67%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">75%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">90%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Koment\u00e1re:<\/p>\n<p>Juraj Barta: <i>\u201eKe\u010f\u017ee po\u013eavuje zahrani\u010dn\u00fd tlak, ochota vl\u00e1dy na \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia s\u00a0bl\u00ed\u017eiacimi sa vo\u013ebami bude klesa\u0165.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Martin Barto:<i> \u201eMakroekonomick\u00e9 predpoklady m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 pr\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00e9 a\u00a0obsluha dlhu drah\u0161ia.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Ji\u0159\u00ed Cihl\u00e1\u0159:<i> \u201eV\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce bude deficit slovensk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu tla\u010dit vzh\u016fru slab\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 aktivita v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b. Ta by se m\u011bla v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce zlep\u0161it.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Radovan \u010eurana:<i> \u201ePredpoklad\u00e1m, \u017ee ak d\u00f4jde k\u00a0dosiahnutiu 3%, tak len pomocou jednorazov\u00fdch opatren\u00ed. N\u00edzky rast da\u0148ov\u00fdch pr\u00edjmov v\u00a0kombin\u00e1cii s\u00a0pomal\u00fdm poklesom nezamestnanosti a\u00a0neochoty skuto\u010dne \u0161krta\u0165 bude deficit dr\u017ea\u0165 pri 3%.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Boris Fojt\u00edk:<i> \u201eMoje percento pravdepodobnosti na rok 2014 zoh\u013ead\u0148uje motiv\u00e1ciu odkladu zn\u00ed\u017eenia DPH, ktor\u00e9 by bolo v\u00a0kombin\u00e1cii s\u00a0neist\u00fdm v\u00fdh\u013eadom rastu HDP lep\u0161ie odlo\u017ei\u0165 na \u010fal\u0161ie volebn\u00e9 obdobie.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Peter Golia\u0161: <i>\u201ePravdepodobnos\u0165, \u017ee deficit v\u00a0danom obdob\u00ed klesne pod 3% HDP, zni\u017euje zrejm\u00e1 neochota vl\u00e1dy prij\u00edma\u0165 nepopul\u00e1rne konsolida\u010dn\u00e9 opatrenia ako aj zavedenie novej metodiky ESA2010, ktor\u00e1 pod\u00e1 objekt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed obraz o\u00a0stave verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed. V\u00a0prospech zni\u017eovania deficitu hovor\u00ed naopak mierne o\u017eivenie ekonomiky, tlak dom\u00e1cej dlhovej brzdy a\u00a0najm\u00e4 tlak na dodr\u017eanie pravidiel Eur\u00f3pskej komisie na ozdravovanie verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed. Hist\u00f3ria nab\u00e1da sk\u00f4r k opatrnosti, Slovensko toti\u017e patr\u00ed dlhodobo medzi \u0161t\u00e1ty s\u00a0najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm deficitom verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed v\u00a0E\u00da.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Eugen Jurzyca:<i> \u201eVe\u013ea bude z\u00e1visie\u0165 od\u00a0postoja E\u00da. Ak bude akceptova\u0165 \u201ekonsolid\u00e1ciu\u201c typu predaj ropn\u00fdch rezerv, zmen\u0161ovanie druh\u00e9ho piliera alebo in\u00e9 kamufl\u00e1\u017ene opatrenia, v\u00fdznamne sa zv\u00fd\u0161i pravdepodobnos\u0165 dosiahnutia pl\u00e1nu a\u00a0naopak.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Juraj Kotian:<i> \u201eR\u00fdchle zn\u00ed\u017eenie pod 3 percent\u00e1 nemus\u00ed by\u0165 v\u00a0z\u00e1ujme vl\u00e1dy, aby nemuselo d\u00f4js\u0165 k\u00a0automatick\u00e9mu zn\u00ed\u017eeniu DPH, ktor\u00e9 by musela vl\u00e1da kompenzova\u0165 riadnymi konsolida\u010dn\u00fdmi opatreniami. Vl\u00e1da si na ukon\u010denie proced\u00fary nadmern\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu m\u00f4\u017ee uplatni\u0165 v\u00fdnimku vo forme odpo\u010d\u00edtania \u010dasti n\u00e1kladov na d\u00f4chodkov\u00fa reformu alebo vzh\u013eadom na recesiu v\u00a0Euroz\u00f3ne uplatni\u0165 odklad plnenia z\u00e1v\u00e4zku zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 deficit pod 3 percent\u00e1.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1n Maru\u0161inec:<i> \u201eJe evidentn\u00e9, \u017ee vl\u00e1da bude musie\u0165 realizova\u0165 nejak\u00e9 opatrenia na to, aby do konca roka udr\u017eala deficit pod hranicou 3% HDP. Nie v\u0161etky polo\u017eky m\u00e1 plne pod kontrolou a\u00a0cie\u013e je nastaven\u00fd bez dostato\u010dne ve\u013ekej rezervy, ale mysl\u00edm, \u017ee sa to nakoniec podar\u00ed. Ak nie, ver\u00edm \u017ee SR nebude jedinou krajinou a\u00a0konsekvencie u\u017e s\u00fa predrokovan\u00e9 v Bruseli. Nasleduj\u00face roky neviem zhodnoti\u0165, ale konsolid\u00e1cia bude v\u00a0prostred\u00ed s\u00a0n\u00edzkym rastom (HDP a\u00a0teda aj pr\u00edjmov) obtia\u017ena.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent:<i> \u201ePre tento rok sa vl\u00e1da tohto z\u00e1v\u00e4zku u\u017e vzdala.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Ot\u00e1zka \u010d. 2: Ak\u00fd bude pod\u013ea V\u00e1s deficit verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed SR v\u00a0pomere k\u00a0HDP ku koncu roka 2013, 2014 a 2015?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Odpovede:<\/p>\n<table width=\"313\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">Priemer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Medi\u00e1n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Min<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Max<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2013<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">3,17%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">3,20%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">2,80%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">3,50%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2014<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">3,01%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">2,95%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">2,80%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">3,40%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">2,74%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">2,70%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">2,50%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">3,30%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Koment\u00e1re:<\/p>\n<p>Ji\u0159\u00ed Cihl\u00e1\u0159: <i>\u201eI\u00a0p\u0159es lep\u0161\u00ed druhou polovinu roku letos po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me s\u00a0m\u00edrn\u00fdm p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00edm c\u00edle na 3% deficit rozpo\u010dtu v\u016f\u010di HDP.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent: <i>(Odhady uv\u00e1dza) \u201eV metodike ESA2010.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Ot\u00e1zka \u010d. 3: Ak\u00e1 je pravdepodobnos\u0165, \u017ee SR preraz\u00ed v rokoch 2013, 2014 a 2015 dlhov\u00fa brzdu na \u00farovni 55%, 57% a\u00a060% HDP? (uve\u010fte percento od 0% do 100%)<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Odpovede:<\/p>\n<table width=\"359\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">Priemer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Medi\u00e1n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Min<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Max<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2013&nbsp;:&nbsp;55%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">48%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">50%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">99%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2013&nbsp;:&nbsp;57%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">40%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2013&nbsp;:&nbsp;60%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2014&nbsp;:&nbsp;55%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">89%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">97%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">40%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">100%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2014&nbsp;:&nbsp;57%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">41%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">40%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">90%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2014&nbsp;:&nbsp;60%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">30%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2015&nbsp;:&nbsp;55%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">91%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">99%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">45%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">100%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2015&nbsp;:&nbsp;57%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">48%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">53%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">90%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"97\">\n<p align=\"right\">2015&nbsp;:&nbsp;60%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">21%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">20%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">80%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Koment\u00e1re:<\/p>\n<p>Radovan \u010eurana: <i>\u201eVl\u00e1da sa boj\u00ed vyrovnan\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu ako \u010dert kr\u00ed\u017ea, \u010do je prirodzen\u00e9, a\u00a0preto pou\u017eije v\u0161etky dostupn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje, ako vykazovan\u00fd dlh udr\u017ea\u0165 pod touto hranicou \u2013 tak\u00fdmi n\u00e1strojmi s\u00fa napr\u00edklad superdividendy, \u010di zni\u017eovanie hotovostn\u00fdch rezerv. V\u00a0roku 2015 nem\u00f4\u017eeme vyl\u00fa\u010di\u0165 pokles pod 55%.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Boris Fojt\u00edk: <i>\u201eKe\u010f do posudzovania v\u00fd\u0161ky dlhu v\u00a0st\u00fapi ESA 2010 otv\u00e1ra sa viacero mo\u017enost\u00ed ako sa v\u00fd\u0161ka dlhu m\u00f4\u017ee vyv\u00edja\u0165 (napr. sledovanie \u010dist\u00e9ho dlhu) a\u00a0moment\u00e1lne je preto \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 predikova\u0165 ak\u00e9 hranice vlastne bud\u00fa prekro\u010den\u00e9. Aj preto m\u00e1m tendenciu za pravdepodobnos\u0165ou dosiahnutia hran\u00edc nevn\u00edma\u0165 ani tak samotn\u00fa v\u00fd\u0161ku dlhu ako n\u00e1sledky, ktor\u00e9 by jej prekro\u010den\u00edm mali nasta\u0165.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Martin \u0160uster: <i>\u201eBez prijatia \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00fdch a\u00a0administrat\u00edvnych opatren\u00ed by som tipoval prekro\u010denie 57%-nej hranice od roku 2014 s vy\u0161\u0161ou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou, ale som si skoro ist\u00fd, \u017ee vl\u00e1da (a ARDAL) niektor\u00e9 tak\u00e9to opatrenia prijme. Pod \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00fdmi a administrat\u00edvnymi opatreniami mysl\u00edm kroky zni\u017euj\u00face vykazovan\u00fd hrub\u00fd dlh, ale nezni\u017euj\u00face deficit ani \u010dist\u00fd dlh.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent: <i>\u201eVl\u00e1da bude vyu\u017e\u00edva\u0165 \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00e9 triky (rezervy Ardalu, superdividendy), aby sa vyhla tvrd\u00fdm sankci\u00e1m.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Ot\u00e1zka \u010d. 4: Ak\u00fd bude pod\u013ea V\u00e1s hrub\u00fd verejn\u00fd dlh SR v pomere k HDP ku koncu roka 2013, 2014 a 2015?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Odpovede:<\/p>\n<table width=\"313\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">Priemer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Medi\u00e1n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Min<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">Max<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2013<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">54,86%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">55,00%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">54,00%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">56,00%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2014<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">56,60%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">56,70%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">54,50%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">58,00%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"51\">\n<p align=\"right\">2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"69\">\n<p align=\"right\">56,95%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">56,80%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">54,50%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"64\">\n<p align=\"right\">60,00%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Koment\u00e1re:<\/p>\n<p>Ji\u0159\u00ed Cihl\u00e1\u0159: <i>\u201eI\u00a0p\u0159es snahu o\u00a0zpomalov\u00e1m\u00ed zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed se Slovensko bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ibli\u017eovat k\u00a0bari\u00e9\u0159e 60 % HDP.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Boris Fojt\u00edk: <i>\u201ePredpoklad\u00e1m, \u017ee aj napriek mierne hor\u0161iemu v\u00fdvoju deficitu oproti n\u00e1vrhu MF SR existuje priestor na zn\u00ed\u017eenie dlhu in\u00fdmi n\u00e1strojmi (napr. jednorazov\u00e9 transfery majetku) a\u00a0vyhn\u00fa\u0165 sa tak prekro\u010deniu hranice 57 %. (pri predikcii neberiem do \u00favahy ESA 2010)\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Peter Golia\u0161: <i>\u201eRast dlhu bud\u00fa zmier\u0148ova\u0165 administrat\u00edvne opatrenia ako napr\u00edklad zni\u017eovanie likvidn\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00fdch akt\u00edv alebo \u010fal\u0161ie \u00fapravy v\u00a0druhom d\u00f4chodkovom pilieri, ktor\u00fdch cie\u013eom bude udr\u017ea\u0165 dlh pod kritick\u00fdmi \u00farov\u0148ami dlhovej brzdy.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1n Maru\u0161inec:<i> \u201eNeviem, z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed aj od rev\u00edzie metodiky ESA.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Michal Mu\u0161\u00e1k: <i>\u201e\u0160t\u00e1t m\u00e1 sp\u00f4soby, ako dlh zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165, \u010di u\u017e cez superdividendy, privatiz\u00e1ciu alebo riadenie likvidity. Predpoklad\u00e1m, \u017ee sa bude sna\u017ei\u0165 udr\u017ea\u0165 pod 55-percentnou hranicou.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent: <i>\u201eVl\u00e1da \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00fdmi trikmi (napr. superdividendy) udr\u017e\u00ed dlh pod 57% HDP.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Ot\u00e1zka \u010d. 5: Mali by by\u0165 pod\u013ea V\u00e1s PPP projekty zahrnut\u00e9 do bilancie verejnej spr\u00e1vy a\u00a0vykazovan\u00e9 vo verejnom dlhu? <\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Odpovede: 14 \u2013 \u00e1no, 0 \u2013 nie<\/p>\n<p>Koment\u00e1re:<\/p>\n<p>Martin Barto: <i>\u201eMaj\u00fa z\u00e1sadn\u00fd vplyv na verejn\u00e9 financie.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Ji\u0159\u00ed Cihl\u00e1\u0159: <i>\u201ePPP projekty re\u00e1ln\u011b zvy\u0161uj\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed zem\u011b, proto by m\u011bly b\u00fdt zahrnov\u00e1ny do sumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Peter Golia\u0161: <i>\u201eUr\u010dite \u00e1no, pokia\u013e bud\u00fa rizik\u00e1 rozlo\u017een\u00e9 tak, ako tomu bolo doteraz na Slovensku zvykom. To znamen\u00e1 najm\u00e4, \u017ee \u0161t\u00e1t ponesie riziko dopytu, pri\u010dom bud\u00face spl\u00e1tky nedok\u00e1\u017ee financova\u0165 z\u00a0v\u00fdnosov za pou\u017e\u00edvanie dia\u013enic. Doteraj\u0161ia prax uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee na Slovensku je motiv\u00e1cia stava\u0165 cez PPP projekty dan\u00e1 najm\u00e4 snahou vyhn\u00fa\u0165 sa ofici\u00e1lnemu rastu dlhu a\u00a0nie snahou o\u00a0efekt\u00edvnej\u0161ie pou\u017eitie zdrojov.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Juraj Kotian: <i>\u201eKe\u010f\u017ee ide o\u00a0nekryt\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u00e4zky vl\u00e1dy, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa pr\u00e1vne vym\u00e1hate\u013en\u00e9, mali by by\u0165 zahrnut\u00e9 do verejn\u00e9ho dlhu.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1n Maru\u0161inec: <i>\u201ePPP by sa mali robi\u0165 predov\u0161etk\u00fdm kv\u00f4li tomu, \u017ee s\u00fakromn\u00fd partner je schopn\u00fd zabezpe\u010dit efekt\u00edvnej\u0161iu prev\u00e1dzku zverenej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary a\u00a0teda t\u00fdm u\u0161etr\u00ed da\u0148ovn\u00edkom peniaze, nie kv\u00f4li tomu aby sa invest\u00edcie vy\u0148ali z\u00a0verejnej \u0161tatistiky.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Michal Mu\u0161\u00e1k: <i>\u201eSk\u00f4r \u00e1no, ale nemus\u00ed by\u0165 pau\u0161\u00e1lne &#8211; viem si predstavi\u0165 pr\u00edpady, kde je riziko financovania na strane s\u00fakromn\u00e9ho partnera, ktor\u00e9 by vo verejnom dlhu nemuseli by\u0165. Sp\u00f4sob vykazovania by nemal ovplyv\u0148ova\u0165 rozhodnutie, \u010di nejak\u00fd projekt financova\u0165 cez PPP alebo nie. T\u00e1to vo\u013eba by mala z\u00e1visie\u0165 od toho, \u010di je to pre Slovensko v\u00fdhodnej\u0161ie ako in\u00e9 formy financovania.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Marek Senkovi\u010d: <i>\u201eKa\u017ed\u00fd projekt, pri ktorom vznik\u00e1 potenci\u00e1lne riziko vzniku bud\u00facich z\u00e1v\u00e4zkov verejnej spr\u00e1vy, by mal by\u0165 zoh\u013ead\u0148ovan\u00fd v\u00a0bilanci\u00e1ch verejnej spr\u00e1vy. Tak sa spr\u00e1va be\u017ene ka\u017ed\u00fd rozumn\u00fd hospod\u00e1r, na strane druhej by na tomto mal by\u0165 koncenzus naprie\u010d krajinami EU.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Martin \u0160uster: <i>\u201eNielen v\u00a0dlhu, ale aj v\u00a0deficite.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent: <i>\u201eV u n\u00e1s zatia\u013e jedinom PPP projekte riziko dopytu na seba prebral \u0161t\u00e1t a preto je t\u00e1to forma PPP pre SR dlhom. PPP sa otvorene robia za \u00fa\u010delom obch\u00e1dzania rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch pravidiel.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Ot\u00e1zka \u010d. 6: S\u00fahlas\u00edte s t\u00fdm, aby \u00fastavn\u00fd z\u00e1kon garantoval z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 parametre druh\u00e9ho piliera, napr\u00edklad v\u00fd\u0161ku odvodov, najmenej na s\u00fa\u010dasnej \u00farovni?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Odpovede: 12 \u2013 \u00e1no, 2 \u2013 nie<\/p>\n<p>Koment\u00e1re:<\/p>\n<p>Martin Barto: <i>\u201eJe to d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 kv\u00f4li stabilite a\u00a0istote sporite\u013eov.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Ji\u0159\u00ed Cihl\u00e1\u0159: <i>\u201eObecn\u011b jsme pro v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed flexibilitu d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho spo\u0159en\u00ed. Na druhou stranu druh\u00fd pil\u00ed\u0159 by m\u011bl fungovat n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek let, proto jek\u00e9koliv zm\u011bny budou sni\u017eovat d\u016fv\u011bru lid\u00ed v\u00a0syst\u00e9m jako takov\u00fd.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Radovan \u010eurana: <i>\u201eFormul\u00e1cia z\u00e1kona by mala umo\u017e\u0148ova\u0165 zni\u017eovanie odvodu do druh\u00e9ho piliera \u2013 bez navy\u0161ovania prv\u00e9ho piliera (dobrovo\u013en\u00e9 vyst\u00fapenie z\u00a0druh\u00e9ho piliera bez nutnosti odv\u00e1dza\u0165 cel\u00fd odvod do prv\u00e9ho piliera).\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Peter Golia\u0161: <i>\u201eD\u00f4chodkov\u00fd syst\u00e9m potrebuje stabilitu. Pr\u00edli\u0161 \u010dast\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u00e9 zmeny v\u00a0\u0148om toti\u017e zni\u017euj\u00fa d\u00f4veru ob\u010danov vo fungovanie \u0161t\u00e1tu. Okrem toho vzh\u013eadom na hroziace prelomenie kritick\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00ed dlhovej brzdy sa zvy\u0161uje riziko, \u017ee vl\u00e1da podobne ako v\u00a0Ma\u010farsku alebo Po\u013esku bude h\u013eada\u0165 potrebn\u00e9 zdroje pr\u00e1ve v\u00a0druhom pilieri. Na \u00fakor dlhodobej udr\u017eate\u013enosti penzijn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Juraj Kotian: <i>\u201e\u00c1no, av\u0161ak by mali by\u0165 jasn\u00e9 podmienky ak\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom bud\u00fa vypl\u00e1can\u00e9 d\u00f4chodky z\u00a0druh\u00e9ho piliera.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1n Maru\u0161inec: <i>\u201eS\u00fahlas\u00edm, ale nepova\u017eujem to za d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9. Ako uk\u00e1zala prax, aj n\u00e1stroj ak\u00fdm je 2. pilier sa d\u00e1 \u201etechnick\u00fdmi\u201c zmenami upravi\u0165 v\u00a0neprospech sporite\u013eov tak, \u017ee v\u00fdnosy v\u00a0\u0148om nie s\u00fa zauj\u00edmav\u00e9, pritom ne\u0161lo o\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00fd parameter 2. piliera. Takto by musela by\u0165 \u00fastavne zabet\u00f3novan\u00e1 cel\u00e1 reforma. Sk\u00f4r by bolo potrebn\u00e9 dobr\u00fa verejn\u00fa debatu, aby \u013eudia mohli prija\u0165 informovan\u00e9 rozhodnutie o\u00a0vstupe\/zotrvan\u00ed\/v\u00fdstupe z\u00a02. piliera. Ale to je parketa pre DSS, NGOs, m\u00e9di\u00e1, pr\u00edpadne i politikov.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Martin \u0160uster: <i>\u201eNapriek tomu, \u017ee som nap\u00edsal nie, parametre druh\u00e9ho piliera by sa nemali zhor\u0161ova\u0165. Je v\u0161ak potrebn\u00e9 zlep\u0161i\u0165 pravidl\u00e1 na spr\u00e1vu fondov (aby sporitelia mali n\u00e1dej na vy\u0161\u0161ie v\u00fdnosy) a\u00a0pripravi\u0165 kvalitn\u00e9 pravidl\u00e1 na v\u00fdplatu d\u00f4chodkov z\u00a02. piliera. Toto v\u0161etko by mal rie\u0161i\u0165 oby\u010dajn\u00fd z\u00e1kon, nie \u00fastavn\u00fd.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Anonymn\u00fd respondent: <i>\u201eDlhodob\u00e1 stabilita by umo\u017enila investova\u0165 \u00faspory tak, \u017ee bud\u00fa dosahova\u0165 dlhodobo vy\u0161\u0161ie v\u00fdnosy.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Verejn\u00fd dlh prelom\u00ed na bud\u00faci rok dlhov\u00fa brzdu na \u00farovni 55% HDP a v roku 2015 bude atakova\u0165 57% HDP. Vypl\u00fdva to z ankety medzi \u010dlenmi Klubu ekonomick\u00fdch analytikov (KEA) a vybran\u00fdmi ekon\u00f3mami, ktorej sa z\u00fa\u010dastnilo 14 respondentov.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":248,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktuality"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=239"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":243,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239\/revisions\/243"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ineko.sk\/kea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}